Making Better Decisions

“Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts”, by Annie Duke, describes how most people incorrectly view the outcome of a decision as being reflective of the quality of their decision process. They think good outcomes from a decision means there was a good decision process and bad outcomes are because of a bad decision process. According to the author, who was a professional gambler, the outcome is more often related to luck than a bad decision process. For example, if you decide to drive through a red light, the fact that you did not get into a crash is more related to luck than being the result of a good decision.

The author claims that people are very uncomfortable with the idea that luck plays such a big part in the outcome of their decisions and are even more uncomfortable with the idea luck plays a big part in their life. Instead of evaluating our choices as having different probabilities of success (like a poker hand), we see our choices as more black and white options with no shades of grey in which choices may be best. Like playing a game of poker, the more information you gain as the game progresses, the less luck controls the result and the better the probability of your chances of making a decision with positive outcomes. Rather than characterizing choices as black or white, her recommendation is to put a probability of success on choices and modify the probability as more information comes available.

Since reading this book, I have been looking more closely at how much information I have about my given set of choices. I noticed that as soon as I started adding a probability (my belief of the percentage chance of success) to each choice, it clarified how much I didn’t know about the future and what the overall risks I was taking with each choice.

I recently had a major decision about my car, since my 3 year lease was coming to an end. Should I buy it? Should I lease another car? Should I buy a new car? Should I use the same dealer? As I collected more and more information and calculated the costs and downside risks of each option, it became clear that a new lease had the best probability of long-term success for me. This process quickly ended my quandary as to what to do. It also made the process of leasing a new car much easier since I went into the negotiation aware of how much of the process was a gamble; would the car be great or a lemon? Time will tell.

It is fascinating to consider how much of the outcomes of my life decisions are just chance, out of my control.

This book is really well written which made understanding the concepts of probability easy to understand and enjoyable to read.
I highly recommended the book!

2018 Year of the Earth Dog

Here are our annual predictions, based on the Chinese lunar calendar, for the 2018 Year of the Earth Dog. As we predicted, the current 2017 Fire Rooster year has seen a focus on justice and more resources put toward growth. The U.S. economy is beginning to improve, the stock market has gained momentum, police and military have gained more favor. Some long-awaited justice is being served. In contrast, the 2018 Dog Year will focus on loyalty, relationships, family, and country. 

The Earth Dog New Year starts February 16, 2018. The Dog is conservative and prizes safety, protection, and tradition. This year will see an inward focus on the country, and major changes in relations between countries.

This Dog year’s impact will be increased for the US by President Trump, who was born in a Dog year (1946). A Dog president will have more influence and power in renegotiating trade and military agreements and protecting US interests during the Dog Year. The Dog year will bring increased social awareness and interest in society’s less powerful members. Generosity and selflessness will be more common. Earth Dog years also increase focus on real estate, agriculture, environment,  and religion.

During the last Earth Dog year, 60 years ago (1958):

Van Allen radiation belts were discovered,

Antarctic was crossed for the first time,

50 feet of snow fell across the Mason-Dixon line, 

NORAD was formed by the US and Canada, 

Mao Zedong started the “Great Leap Forward” movement in China, 

Castro’s Cuban government was recognized by the US, 

US approved Alaska's statehood, 

Eisenhower signed the NASA Act,

The USS Nautilus reached the North Pole,

China fired on islands in the Taiwan Strait and a Chinese civil war started, 

Japan marketed the first precooked instant noodles, 

The US Air force Academy opened in Colorado Springs, 

The National Defense Education Act was signed, 

A US Air Force C-130A was shot down when it strayed into USSR airspace, 

Doctor Zhivago was published in US, 

The first color video was recorded on magnetic tape, 

Jack Kilby demonstrated the first integrated circuit (IC), 

Rockets designed by Ernst Mohr reached the upper atmosphere,

The US manned space-flight project was renamed Project Mercury, 

The first pacemaker was installed in Stockholm, 

Pope Pius XII died and John XXIII was elected as the new Pope,

First women in the UK House of Lords,

PanAm flew the first transatlantic jet from NY to Paris

The first coronary angiogram was performed,

The US tested the first full range ICBM and launched the first guided missile destroyer,

The first radio broadcast was made from space – President Eisenhower’s Christmas message “to all mankind, America’s wish for peace on Earth and goodwill to men everywhere”.

The 2018 Dog Year will emphasize friends and family and security which will be reflected in US relations with other countries and world leaders. It is a time for caution, pragmatism, and careful growth in business, career, home, and family affairs. For the best luck in this year, keep calm and stay rational.

The First case of Diet destroying a brain tumor

About five years ago, I read a study that started my interest in the ketogenic diet as a cure for cancer. In the study, a woman had a brain tumor, a Glioblastoma (GBM), completely disappear in two and half months on the diet. I learned about GBMs while living in Los Alamos, New Mexico in the 1990’s while serving on a community cancer study.  GBMs were the cancer of greatest concern because even with surgery, chemotherapy and radiation, a quick death (usually with in 6 months) was certain. The study piqued my interest in how a keto diet could irradicate this deadly cancer. 

The study was done in 2008 at the Arcipedaule S. Maria Nuova Hospital in Reggio Emilia,  Italy (a Province between Florence and Milan). It described how a 65 year old woman started having nausea, headaches, and memory loss. Upon examination, several GBM tumors were discovered on each side of her brain. Surgery was performed to remove the tumors, but was not able to remove all the cancer.(GBM tumors are like blobs of jello and all the tiny globs of cancer sticking to the brain cannot be removed by surgery.) 

The patient was put on a water-only fast followed by a calorie-restricted ketogenic diet of 600 calories a day for 14 days prior to beginning the standard treatment of radiation and chemotherapy. The diet consisted of a ratio of 4 calories of fat to 1 calorie of protein or carbohydrate. The ketogenic diet, a low-carbohydrate, high-fat diet causes low blood glucose levels and high blood ketone levels. The reduction in carbohydrates and high fat puts the body into a metabolic state called ketosis.

After six weeks on the diet, the patient developed high levels of uric acid in the blood (gout) so she was slowly moved to a 600 calorie a day, non-keto diet. The low calorie diet continued to keep her blood glucose level low (in the 60mg/dl range though never under 45mg/dl.)  Nine weeks later an MRI showed the brain tumor was gone. A PET scan was performed 12 weeks later and showed no sign of cancer. After 6 months the calorie restriction was stopped. Eight weeks after her calorie restriction ended, the tumor reoccurred.

The study concluded that low blood glucose in conjunction with high ketones in the blood greatly reduces cancer cells’ ability to survive. 

This is considered the first case of a GBM tumor being killed off with the help of a diet. It also inspired my two year adventure in researching how ketogenic diets  kill deadly cancers and may greatly improve your health.

Happy Money

The book, Happy Money: The Science of Happier Spending by Elizabeth Dunn and Michael Norton, summarizes current research on how you spend money changes how happy and satisfied you are in life and affects your health and well being.

This is a wonderful book that explains how you can increase your happiness by spending on experiences with the people you value rather than spending on prestige belongings that many people think will make them happy.

According to the book, research shows that spending money on leisure activities like trips, movies, sporting events, gym memberships and the like leads to more happiness than buying expensive consumer and prestige items. Experiences tend to be appreciated more as time goes by whereas things tend to be less appreciated as time goes on as better things than they bought emerge. Experiences tend to make us feel more connected to other people which improves life satisfaction. When couples do exciting and novel things together, their relationships improve. Anything we do to make the time with our friends or partners special is money well spent. Experiences make memorable stories for retelling for years to come and give us a sense of who we are or who we want to be. Experiences can’t be compared  to things purchased. Experiences that remind of us of the past and give us nostalgia, like going to a museum, watching an old movie, or hearing a favorite song, can bolster our vitality and reduce stress.

Research indicates people earning over $75,000 a year do not have an increase in happiness. High income individuals spend more time doing high stress activities like working, commuting, and shopping than those who make less. High income individuals view their time as highly valuable which makes them feel like they have less time. In contrast, buying time, called time affluence, increases happiness. You can gain time affluence by moving closer to work to reduce your commute, working in a job that requires less hours, or hiring people to do your yard work or cleaning.

Research shows that having expensive things does not bring happiness, health, or well-being. The University of Michigan found that those with cheaper cars had the same satisfaction driving them as people with expensive cars. Surprisingly, homeowners are not happier than renters, and are on average are 12 lbs heavier than renters. Those who simplify their lives by reducing their wardrobe, moving into a smaller abode, changing their consumption patterns, and reducing their stuff are happier. The enemy of appreciation is abundance; if we make everything we do special it will increase appreciation and happiness.

I highly recommend this book for people wanting more happiness, time, and life satisfaction. Five Stars. 

Common Sense Investing

I found a lot to like about the The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns by John C. Bogle. Mr. Bogle was the founder of The Vanguard Group and is famous for creating the world’s first index mutual fund in 1975, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund.

The logic of his index fund was to invest in a large number of stocks, all the stocks comprising the S&P 500, to make money from the combination of their growth and dividends. This is a departure from the more common view of investing in undervalued stocks to make money from an increase in their stock value.

Bogle makes a convincing argument that the best way to get the value from the stock market is to invest in all the stocks by buying mutual funds based on indexes of the market that invest in all the stocks.

The author points out that the real net income from stock investments is the investments’ gain minus the cost of the investments. The costs are relatively easy to determine in the case of retail brokers charging for a stock trade when buying or selling  stocks. However, the costs are much more complicated for mutual funds because, in addition to the cost of the trade, in many cases there is an annual incentive sales fee for the broker for up to five years (up to 1.5% a year according to the author). I had no idea that there were hidden sales fees in addition to the purchase fee charged by the brokers. In addition to annual fees, most mutual funds typically have additional management fees of 2 to 3%. In comparison, index funds have low management fees (often .4% or lower) with no hidden sales fees.

What is more disturbing is that 99% of mutual funds significantly underperform the S&P 500 index. When the excessive costs combined with the underperformance of mutual funds are compared to S&P index funds, the long term income differences are shocking. The net return after taxes of $10,000 invested in an indexed fund from 1980 to 2005 would have been $76,200 versus $16,700 for other mutual funds (for those mutual funds that survived). This represents 456% more net income to the investor with far less risk.

If you are one of the 85% of investors who let their broker "manage" their assets, Bogle’s book may keep you awake at night. To sleep better, I switched to low cost, low risk index funds. 

The author’s perspective is unique since he invented the very first indexed funds. It is a little like reading Thomas Edison's thoughts about the light bulb. Bogle knows the issues and history of investing in indexes versus other types of mutual funds.

This "common sense investing" book was easy to read and easy to understand. I highly recommend it to anyone wanting their investments to produce more income with less risk.  Five Stars and hats off to the founder of index investing. 

How your Bank Balance buys you Happiness

I recently read an interesting study, How your bank balance buys happiness: The importance of "cash on hand" to life satisfaction, by Ruberton, Gladstone, and Lyubomirsky from the University of California, Riverside and Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. The study claims having more cash in your checking and saving accounts leads to increased life satisfaction.

This is the first study on money to use actual banking records from the participants to assess how their “liquid wealth” affected their life satisfaction. Previous studies only used self reported estimates of bank account information. In addition to the previous year of bank records, the participants took a Life Satisfaction survey and a two question Perceived Financial Well Being survey. Measures for the study also included Income, Total Spending, Total Investments, Indebtedness status, Employment status, and Relationship status. Another key detail was anyone who had greater debt than savings was excluded from the study.

The study’s results confirmed previous studies findings that people with higher debt have lower life satisfaction and people with investments have higher life satisfaction, as do people with an income high enough to have a moderately good quality of life (approximately $75,000). It also confirmed studies showing that life satisfaction is unrelated to income above $75,000 and people with no debts have higher life satisfaction.

The new revelation from the study was that having more cash in savings or checking accounts increased financial well being and life satisfaction more than any other factor, including total debt, income level, or investments. The study found that with each increase in cash by a factor of ten, life satisfaction increases by 3.45%. So an increase in savings from $1 to $1000 increases life satisfaction by about 10.35%. The next 3.45% increase in life satisfaction is at $10,000 in cash. And another 3.45% increase is at $100,000. The next 3.45% increase in life satisfaction requires a million dollars.

Even people with very large investments (over ten million dollars) who had small amounts of liquidity in their bank accounts had significantly lower levels of financial well being and life satisfaction than those with vastly lower investments yet more liquid wealth in cash.

What is unclear about this new finding is if it is the result of the 2008 financial collapse, since investments may not provide the same feeling of financial well being as before. Or is this something that has been true for a long time and not previously found due to self reporting biases, since actual bank statements were not used in the past. 


The researchers also raised the alarm about how much the long-term, extremely low interest rates from banks may be costing society in happiness and well being. These low rates punish those who have more cash in savings.  

How to Make Your Money Last in Retirement

I just finished reading Jane Bryant Quinn’s book "How to Make Your Money Last: The Indispensable Retirement Guide”. Ms. Quinn wrote this book last year and is now 78 years old, so her concepts are not theoretical or abstract. She shares clear, concrete, and very detailed information on how to make your retirement money last which made this book useful and enjoyable to read.

 

The most basic thing she recommends to do to make your money last is to earn income as long as you can (as old as possible) and not start taking your social security until you are 70 years old. The social security payout increases 8% a year for every year after age 62.

The second way to make your money last is to control spending. The happy place to be in retirement is where your expenses are equal to or less than your income.

For most retirees, their biggest reduction comes from downsizing the cost of their housing. 

Another major expense for many are high stock trade fees and hidden commissions in mutual funds, annuities, and life insurance products. These high costs and hidden fees can eat away as much as 50% or more of the long term value of a retirement portfolio. The best way to avoid this is to use a discount broker and manage investments yourself.

An area of great savings and great risk is Medicare. You can start taking Medicare at 65 and it may be much cheaper than your employers health coverage plan, however, there are big risks to doing this. If you start Medicare, the government will automatically start your social security payments. You have to have the payments stopped or you could lose your 8% lifetime increase. If you miss a payment to Medicare, they cover it with social security and that could impact your start date. You may not even be notified and only find out about it at age 70 when you file for social security. Not a small risk.

Although I have  considered Annuities and Reverse Mortgages foolish things to do, the author pointed out some circumstances where they can be very profitable. The book does a great job of explaining the difference between an IRA, a 401K and a Roth IRA and the tax implications of each. She describes the rules for taxes and inheritances and what income is and is not taxable.

One thing I found surprising is that you can open a Roth IRA at anytime and put in any amount. The earnings are not taxed and, unlike an IRAs, there is no minimum that must be withdrawn each year or maximum that can be withdrawn each year. Even better, the earnings are not taxed when taken out. It actually seems too good to be true, so I recently bought a book on the details of Roth IRAs to see what the downside might be.

The author recommends that you pay off all credit card debt before retiring; apparently people 50 and older have a lot of credit card debt - far more than younger people. She also thinks it is best to avoid buying rentals as a source of income because they are hard to manage.

The book’s detail and depth makes it a slow read but I found the information so useful that I used a highlighter to mark the critical details and consider it an important reference.


I highly recommend this book, five stars.

The Stock Market Index Revolution

The Index Revolution: Why Investors Should Join It Now by Dr. Charles Ellis explained a lot of the changes that I have witnessed in the stock market over the last 40 years. Dr. Ellis has a great deal of experience managing large pension funds and wealth funds. He explained the reasons why investing by amateurs like me no longer works and why it makes sense to invest in indexes.

In the 1960’s 99% of stock market trades were by amateur investors who traded just a few times a year. Today, less than 1% of stock trades are by amateur investors. Now, over 1.5 million professional traders, mutual funds, pension funds, and automated trading systems make 99% of the world-wide stock trades.

Full time professional and institutional traders take advantage of underpriced stocks by finding them faster than amateur investors. They do it by getting instant and detailed information about companies unavailable to amateurs.  Stock information sources can cost over $20,000 a year, impossibly expensive for an amateur like me managing my IRA and small portfolio of individual stocks.

Over the past 40 years, the trend toward professional and institutional stock trading led to the creation and spectacular growth of professionally managed mutual funds. Although the “famously successful mutual fund managers” paid huge salaries touted that their mutual funds performed better than the overall market, academic researchers found that over the past decade only one or two of their mutual funds out-performed the S&P 500 stock index. And, after the cost of trades and the high management fees, none of the mutual funds out performed the S&P 500 index.

The stock market generally goes up about 8% per year, averaged over 10 years. The expense of trades and staff, which is commonly 4% of the gain, can cut the long term appreciation of an investment portfolio by 50% of even the best performing mutual funds. Most of the mutual funds do not come close to matching the performance of the overall stock market index, but even if they did the net result would be less because of their costs.

These findings published by academia have led to a mass exodus from mutual funds to exchange traded index funds (ETFs).

The author’s career included managing foundation portfolios as well as researching stock fund results at Yale, Harvard, and Princeton. His unique experience makes the book an especially enjoyable read. I was so impressed with the data and view he presented that I immediately started moving out of individual stocks into ETFs. It has been about 90 days since I started and I am already very happy with the greater stability of the ETFs; no more disturbing daily volatility of individual stocks.

I highly recommend the book. Five stars. 

Mini Habits

The book Mini Habits: Smaller Habits, Bigger Results by Stephen Guise is based on the story of how the author discovered that mini habits work better than traditional big habits. For ten years the author tried many different personal development systems, to build significant daily habits that would help him achieve his fitness and writing goals, and had no success. One night in desperation he decided upon a mini habits - just one push-up a day. To his surprise this mini habit empowered him to do more and more push-ups and to ultimately develop fitness habits that helped him achieve his goals.

His surprising results with mini habits inspired him to research why they worked so well in achieving major results. The author’s personal experiences with a motivational approach to achievement was that to be motivated to work on a goal, it had to be big enough to be exciting, like running five miles a day or writing 2000 words a day.  The daily tasks required to achieve the goals took so much willpower to start that he never had the energy to get started, much less start a new habit.  Without “motivation” he could not get anything done.

Researchers have discovered that to be motivated to achieve a goal, which requires habit formation, the goal has to be big enough to get people excited. For many people just coming up with a big “exciting” goal was enough of an accomplishment. Having the goal was a reward enough and they no longer felt the need to actually accomplish it. Those who tried to accomplish a big goal which required developing new habits that took a lot of energy and willpower had a very negative experience and feeling of failure when the goal was not achieved.  The result was a huge resistance to developing new habits and a negative experience every time forming new habits was attempted yet not accomplished.

Establishing a mini-habit, on the other hand, does not require a lot willpower to start and since it is easy to do, it creates a regular positive experience by doing it each day. Even though the mini-habit is ridiculously small, it provides a positive sense of accomplishment and encouragement. It is important not to increase the mini-habit goal so that it remains easy to do. The mini-habit doesn’t require much energy to start so there is more energy to do the work.

The author suggests taking at least a month to see if mini-habits will work for you. I tried the mini-goal the author had, to write 50 words a day on a book I have been working for a year about what I have learned about cancer that I think everyone should know. The first few weeks the mini-goal seemed to help a little, but now that I have been doing it for 6 weeks it seems to be helping a lot. It not only helped with writing the book, but it contributed to me focusing the content and scope of the book. Instead of trying to explain the historical models of cancer and how recent discoveries are finding them to be wrong, I am focusing on the stunning new discoveries and the success of non-toxic cancer  treatments. Last week I wrote more in a day than I have since high school.

I feel using mini-goals is helping me achieve my goals. If you want to try a new way to accomplish things try out mini-goals. I highly recommend this book - Five Stars.  

Trump’s Plan for America – Improve your Health and Sanity by knowing the Future

Rapid change and uncertainty can be upsetting and even make you sick.  The media’s daily portrayal of President Trump’s s behavior as crazy and unpredictable has convinced many people that his plans are vague and out of control.  The reality is that Trump published the actions he planned to take as president in 2015 and as far as I can tell he is following the plan exactly.  Knowing his plan and what to expect next has reduced my stress and allowed me to ignore the media’s portrayal of Trump as a clueless president who has no idea what he is doing.  I summarized Donald Trump’s 10 major plans for America based on his book, Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again:

Immigration

End illegal immigration in America. Enforce existing immigration laws and deport all illegal immigrants who have come across the border or overstayed their visas. Build a wall along the US/Mexico border. End US “birth citizenship” which grants a US passport to babies born in the US to non-US citizens, in many cases their mothers travelled to the US on tourist visas, temporary visas, or illegally for the sole purpose of the birth.

Foreign policy

Foreign policy will be based on what is best for the US. The US will no longer put other countries first at the expense of the US tax payers and American workers. This will have wide-spread effects on trade, defense, and foreign policy where America is footing the bill for the defense, economic protection, safe ocean passage , or international organizations for other countries.

Trade

Renegotiate all US trade deals to favor the US.  Renegotiate or terminate NAFTA. Although WTO is not mentioned, changes to trade deals with China and Europe and Japan are specifically discussed.  Stop countries like China, Germany, and Japan from getting a trade advantage by keeping their currency artificially low.

Defense

Make the US military unquestionably the best military force in the world. The plan is to increase funding, increase troop numbers, improve training, and improve the quality and military equipment available to US troops. Have the best missile systems in the world. Charge countries the US protects around the world for the cost of the defense.

Energy

Support US oil, gas and coal production. Stop the EPA from enforcing rules that are not laws. Repeal environmental laws that impede the energy industry. Charge OPEC for the cost of the military protection the US Navy provides them.

Health Care

Replace Obamacare. Provide cheaper alternatives for health insurance that gives people more choices and does not fine those without insurance. Create more competition between insurance companies to reduce healthcare prices. Negotiate with drug companies for lower drug prices. Build and fund mental hospitals to take care of the people that need to be there.

Taxes

Make the tax code so simple that no American will need an accountant to fill out their forms. Any person earning under $25K or couple earning under $50K will pay no federal taxes. All corporate taxes will be 15% as well as individual entrepreneurs.  US corporations will be able to bring money earned overseas back to the US and pay only a 10% tax. All loopholes for the rich will be closed and the effective tax rates for the top 1% income earners will be increased.

Guns

Make gun law standard nationwide.  Allow everyone, except felons, to carry a concealed gun anywhere in the US. Make it a federal crime for any felon caught with a gun, with a 5 year sentence in federal prison with no parole or reduced time for good behavior.

Education

End federal programs for education. Give all federal funds for education to the US States to use as they see fit.

Infrastructure

Rebuild the infrastructure across the US.  Increase the amount the US spends on infrastructure from 2.4% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to 9.0% of our GDP. 

I have come to believe that much of the commotion surrounding President Trump’s actions are caused by his business approach of getting his plan completed as quickly as possible and not from him doing  the unexpected. Whether you agree with Trump’s plan or not, you can reduce your stress by knowing more about details of what he plans to do. I highly recommend this book, 5 stars. 

The Power of Habit

The book, The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business was written by journalist Charles Duhigg who became interested in habits while covering the Iraq war after observing US troops quickly and calmly respond to attacks. He learned that most military training is teaching soldiers habits so they know what to do without thinking. The author explains how habits allow us to do complex tasks without thinking, like driving a car, cooking breakfast, and walking in a familiar place.

Much of the new understanding about habits is from Eugene Pauly who had significant brain damage caused by a viral infection at age 70. Though much of his brain was destroyed by the virus including his ability to make new memories, he was able to perform complex tasks that had been established as existing habits and create new habits. By studying Pauly, scientists discovered that habits are stored in the basal ganglia, the small primitive part of the brain. Habits make up over 40% of our daily activities, which makes us very dependent on this small part of our brain. If we had to think (in our cerebral cortex) through every action we take during the day we would quickly become exhausted and unable to function. Habits are instantaneous responses to stimuli; if a child jumps in front of your car you slam on the brakes without thinking.

Habits are described as behavior loops that start with a cue like being hungry, followed by a behavior, like cooking breakfast, and ending with a reward like feeling full.  All habits start out with a craving of some kind, like a craving for food, or a craving for stimulation or socialization. Habits effectively satisfy a craving by an automatic behavior.  This seems a bit simplistic of an explanation to me considering that habits can be formed without a craving through external pressures, like a job or by your own initiative.

Although habits are powerful and never really go away, they are also fragile and can be altered by small changes to the cue. An example given was the loss of customers to a McDonalds that moved just a block away; the cue at the specific place where drivers saw the McDonalds sign was disrupted and that stopped their behavior of driving in for food.

The author states that to gain control over a habit we must understand what craving is being satisfied by the behavior. To uncover the unconscious craving  we must experiment by giving ourselves different rewards. The author gives a personal example of his cookie craving in the afternoon at work. His routine was to go to the cafeteria, buy a cookie, and talk to people while he ate it. He didn’t know if the craving was for food, stimulation, or socialization. To test out food, he brought an apple to work and ate at his desk. This did not stop his afternoon cookie craving. The next day he went for a walk around the block and that didn’t stop his craving either. Finally, he tried leaving his desk to talk to people and that stopped his craving. So he set an alarm 30 minutes before he normally went to get a cookie in the afternoon and instead talked to coworkers for ten minutes and no longer craved his afternoon cookie.

I found the description of keystone habits very useful. Keystone habits are good habits that lead to developing other good habits. One example of a keystone habit is daily exercise. Once daily exercise becomes a habit, it can lead to a habit of controlling spending, drinking less alcohol, and eating less. For weight loss, keystone habits are keeping a daily food journal and recording your weight every day.  Studies have found people who exhibit these two habits lose more weight than people who don’t have these habits. I am trying to develop these keystone habits to see if they will help me take off the ten pounds I have put on since moving to Oahu.

Another keystone habit is keeping a “conflict planning journal”, which leads to preparation for difficult circumstances. By writing down ahead of time how you are going to deal with a conflict, for instance how will you deal with a really hostile customer, you will be less upset and emotional when it happens. Being less upset leads to other positive things.

The author described successful organizations that teach their employees habits to make their businesses more effective and profitable. Alco Aluminum increased their profits by 500% by developing safety habits in their employees. Starbucks teaches their employees communication habits to deal with hostile customers. A low ranked NFL team became top ranked by teaching their players better football habits.

Although some of the author’s claims in this book are thin and there is minimal discussion about how to create habits, I found the book worth reading and recommend it.  Five stars.

IP6 - a non-toxic Treatment for Cancer

I became interested in the nutrient “inositol hexaphosphate”, known as IP6, after finding out that it reduced toxic levels of iron in the blood and organs. Initially, my research on IP6 concerned me as many health websites identify IP6 as an anti-nutrient  since it removes iron, copper, selenium, zinc and other metals from the body. If I had not just read the about the dangers of iron and learned that older adults frequently have toxic levels of iron, I would not have considered taking IP6 as a supplement.

To learn more, I got the book IP6 + Inositol: Nature's Medicine For The Millennium!: Discover How A Cocktail of Simple Molecules Can Prevent And Fight Cancer And Other Diseases by Dr. AbulKalam Shamsuddin.

IP6 is a natural substance found in the bran of grains, cereals, seeds and nuts. Since bran is now removed from most grains, Americans are getting very little IP6 compared to their grandparents. Long term studies have shown lower rates of cancer in individuals who consume lots of foods with high levels of IP6. More recent studies of IP6 consumption have also shown significantly lower cancer rates in countries that consume IP6 rich foods. Unfortunately, IP6 tends to bond with proteins in the grain which reduces how much the body can absorb from foods and makes it difficult to get the amount of IP6 into the bloodstream that was used in studies that cured cancer in mice.  The book recommends IP6 supplements be taken on an empty stomach to get the best benefit and avoid the IP6 bonding with food.

IP6 provides key nutrients to the mitochondria and cell membrane. Since the mitochondria control cellular reproduction rate, cellular death, intercellular communication, and cell differentiation of new cells, it is critical for them to receive nutrients to function properly.  I learned from Tripping Over the Truth that cancers are caused by damage to mitochondria, not damage to the cell nucleus DNA which was believed for decades.  The nutrition from IP6 curtails the mitochondria from initiating increased blood flow to support cancer cells rapid growth, slows cell reproduction rates, and increases cell differentiation. Cancer cells are rapidly reproducing cells that are immortal (no apoptosis) caused by damaged mitochondria.  In late stage cancer, cancer cells replicate so fast that the cells are not differentiated enough to be recognized as a specific type of cell like a breast or liver cell. Undifferentiated cancer cells (known as cancer stem cells) can be transported in the blood stream to other organs in the body where they are not recognized as being foreign by the immune system and can continue to replicate and create a metastasized cancer site.

The book described the many other benefits of IP6 that researchers are discovering:

• reduces excess iron in cells;
• reduces xanthine oxidase, an enzyme that makes uric acid. Uric acid causes gout so reducing xanthine oxidase could offer relief to gout suffers;
• helps people with Type II Diabetes because getting inositol into the cell makes cells more responsive to insulin;
• appears to reduce blood sugar levels in the blood and help repair damage blood vessels from high glucose levels in diabetics;
• helps reduce kidney stones by binding to and removing excess calcium.
• improves the immune system, increases bone density, reduces anxiety attacks, reduces obsessive compulsive behavior, and increases energy by recharging the potassium in  ATP cycle.

IP6 looks like it may be an effective nontoxic treatment for cancer as well as a nutrient to prevent cancer. (The author did mention that he has a patent on IP6.) The book convinced me that there were enough benefits of taking IP6 to risk any side effects of lowering my metal levels. I have been taking it as a supplement for about two weeks and I have noticed that it has improved my energy level and seems to be making my skin look better (something not predicted by this book but mentioned in the Dumping Iron book).

In addition to IP6, the book covers many other topics about cancer. For example, there was a review of what is wrong with the methods used to diagnosis and treat bowel cancer. The current method of looking for blood in fecal matter results in a large percentage of false positives which requires expensive, painful, and dangerous procedures to confirm if the diagnosis is accurate or not. Even worse, this entire system of diagnosis only detects 20% of colon cancers, so 80% of colon cancer cases go undetected. The author proposes using a less invasive mucus test that is 78 to 90% effective for finding all colon cancers. Similar cases are made for breast cancer and lung cancer diagnoses using more accurate and less costly diagnostic tests that are currently available.

Although this book was not an easy read and written for people with a bioscience background, I recommend it to anyone wanting to learn more about how to improve their health through better nutrition. A lot of the information and topics were understandable to an average reader like me. Highly recommended. Five stars.

Iron, The Secret Killer

I became concerned about iron in my body after reading an article by a researcher at Duke on the “Golden Age of Iron Biology”.  I then read, “Dumping Iron: How to Ditch this Secret Killer and Reclaim Your Health” by P.D. Mangan, an excellent book on recent research about the negative effects of high levels of iron in the body.  In simple language a non-biologist like me can understand, the book explains astonishing new discoveries of why high iron concentrations in the body degrades health and shortens lives.  

According to the book, iron starts accumulating in men at age 19 and in most women starting at about age 50 after the end of their menses. At 50, the average man has 4 times as much iron in his body as the average women; he also has 4 times the mortality from diseases that appear to be caused by high iron. Women’s mortality increases as their iron levels reach the same high levels as men. Though women live 4 years longer than men, at their death the average iron levels of women are the same as the average men's level. The author notes that the majority of the oldest people alive have had low levels of iron most of their lives and populations that are long lived have low levels of iron in their blood.

According to the book, there was a dramatic rise in iron levels in the US population due to the addition of iron to grains and cereals, which has caused the average person to have higher levels of iron than is healthy. One of the issues with iron is that the body has no natural way to get rid of it so it builds up first in the liver, then in the pancreas, then other organs including the heart and brain. To make matters worse, sugar and fructose increase iron absorption significantly. So all the sugary drinks and foods people have added to their diet over the past few decades has further increased their iron levels.

High iron levels damages cellular mitochondria and is suspected to cause cancer. Even more interesting, cancer cells need large amounts of iron to grow and spread. Tumors in people with low iron tend to be very small and grow slowly.

Iron is also implicated in cancer reoccurring after treatments of chemotherapy and radiation because iron is needed for cancer stem cells to form. Cancer stem cells are special cancer cells that can travel throughout the body and restart cancer growth after treatment. Low levels of iron in the blood may prevent them from forming.

I was surprised to learn that high iron levels are needed for invasive bacteria to grow in the body and low iron levels actually increase immunity to bacteria. Even viruses, like colds and flu, need lots of iron to grow so low iron levels are also antiviral. It helps explains why people with low levels of iron live so long.

Evidence is also growing that high iron levels contribute to obesity because it destroys the hormone leptin, the key hormone that reduces hunger after eating. High iron levels can make you insatiably hungry which can lead to obesity.

The author believes that the best blood iron level is just over what would normally be considered anemia. He recommends that people keep their iron levels much lower than the normal ranges and consume things that both remove iron from the body and take things that decrease iron absorption from the foods you eat. What is really interesting about this is that most of the things that decrease iron absorption are considered life-extending like green tea, dark chocolate, red wine, low dose aspirin, low calorie diets, high fiber, vegetarian diets, and exercise.

I highly recommend this book for anyone wanting to improve the quality of their health and longevity using recent discoveries about iron biology. Five stars!!!!

Keto Clarity, A Guide to Low-Carb, High-Fat Diet

The book, Keto Clarity: Your Definitive Guide to the Benefits of a Low-Carb, High-Fat Diet, is blogger Jimmy Moore's personal story of losing weight on the ketogenic diet.  Jimmy began his blog in 2011 at the of age 32 while losing 180 pounds on a ketogenic diet. The success he had losing weight made him a big fan of the diet and his blog became popular with others wanting to lose weight. He interviewed experts on the ketogenic diet and wrote about all the issues and concerns with living long term on the diet. The book is a combination of his personal experiences on a ketogenic diet for 13 years and the advice and experiences of 21 experts in the ketogenic field, mostly doctors, dietitians and researchers.

Interesting details about being on a ketogenic diet (some new to me) from the book were:

1. Being in ketosis can cause you to test positive for alcohol on a breathalyzer.

2. When you get into ketosis it can cause a huge surge in Uric acid in the body which could bring about a gout attack; the Uric acid levels will usually normalize in 4 to 8 weeks.

3. Living in ketosis can improve your fertility and increase your sex drive from better hormone production.

5. Using urine ketone strips to test for ketosis has several draw backs: 1) it does not test for the critical ketone of beta-hydroxybutyrate but instead for acetoacetate so it does not tell you if you are producing the right ketones; 2) after several months in ketosis your kidneys may stop releasing ketones in the urine so you could be in deep ketosis and not tell from a urine strip.

6. A better way to test for ketosis is by using a home kit that analyzes a pin prick of blood for the right ketones.

7. It is possible to produce ketones and still have high blood sugar levels, something you want to avoid. The best way to avoid this is to use a home kit to test a pin prick of blood for glucose so you can monitor your blood glucose level to make sure it is going down as your ketones go up.

9. Being in ketosis improves your brain’s functioning and your mental energy.

10. Being in ketosis also improves your overall energy and heart functioning.

11. Carbohydrates are not an essential nutrient. If you don’t eat any, your body will produce them by breaking down protein. You actually have to limit your protein intake to stay in ketosis, although the amount varies from person to person.

13. Living on a ketogenic diet reduces inflammation.

14. There is solid scientific evidence that ketogenic diets work therapeutically for epilepsy, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, polycystic ovary syndrome, irritable bowel syndrome, GERD and heartburn, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. There is also good evidence of the benefits from ketosis for Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, dementia, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, narcolepsy and other sleep disorders. Emerging areas of research that look very promising are cancer, autism, fibromyalgia, chronic pain, migraines, traumatic brain injury, stroke, gum disease, tooth decay, acne, eyesight, Lou Gehrig’s disease, multiple sclerosis, Huntington’s disease, kidney disease, restless leg syndrome, and aging.

Although it is hard for me to imagine how so many chronic diseases could be cured or improved by a ketogenic diet, it has been suggested that these diseases are all made worse by high levels of insulin in the blood and since the ketogenic diet cuts out all sugar, the reduction of insulin as a result could be the primary factor.

We have been on a ketogenic diet for a while, but the book inspired us to cut back on our protein intake and to get a blood sugar analyzer. We also ordered a ketone blood analyzer to determine the ratio of glucose and ketones in our blood.

Overall this was a great book that was easy to read and did a great job of explaining very abstract concepts. It was the best book on ketogenic living I have read, (and  I have read a dozen or more). I highly recommend the book for anyone interested in their health. Five stars !

Tripping Over the Truth about Cancer

Tripping Over theTruth: The Return of the Metabolic Theory of Cancer Illuminates a New and Hopeful Path to a Cure by Travis Christofferson is a surprisingly interesting collection of stories about the history and findings of cancer research.

One of the stories in the book is about Dr. Warburg who in 1924 discovered that cancer cells can only live on glycogen (sugar) and later that cancer cells have fewer mitochondria than healthy cells. Dr. Warburg’s  extraordinary brilliance, his personal sacrifices to contribute to understanding cancer, and the dedication of his students make the story an inspiring read.

The book describes three shocking revelations from recent discoveries made at the multinational Cancer Genome Atlas project funded by the National Cancer Institute, started in 2006.

First: most cancers are not caused by genetic damage to DNA, which mainstream medicine believes (except Dr. Warburg and his students) to be the primary cause of cancer since the discovery of DNA in the 1950s.

Second: the body does a remarkably good job of repairing DNA; most cancer cells have far less DNA damage than anyone realized, which destroyed the accepted model of cancer known as the “Somatic Theory of Cancer“.

Third: tumors are rarely comprised of just one type of cancer cell and instead consist of thousands of genetically different cancer cells. This explains why cancer growths are so resistance to chemotherapy and radiation. Cancer growths with thousands of versions of DNA are far more likely to survive compared to a mass of cells with the same DNA. Sadly, it also explains why if cancer returns it is much harder to treat; the cancer cells that survived initial treatments are not affected by the same subsequent treatments.

The book describes a discovery in 1978 that strongly pointed to cell mitochondria damage being the cause of cancer. Cancer researcher Cyril Darlington found that  x-rays with enough energy to damage the DNA in the cell nucleus did not cause cancer, yet when the energy in x-rays was increased enough to damage cell mitochondria, it did cause cancer. Sadly this research was totally ignored until Thomas Seyfried wrote his landmark book in 2012 “Cancer as a metabolic disease”. Mitochondria controls cellular growth rates, apoptosis (programmed cellular death), and intracellular communications. When the mitochondria of cells are damaged, it causes rapid cell replication (from days to hours), the cells become immortal and never die, and they tell nearby cells to redirect the blood flow to support their rapid growth.

One of the strangest discoveries the book describes is that when the cell’s mitochondria is damaged, it sends an emergency message (known as a “retrograde response”) to the cell’s nucleus. The nucleus attempts to help the mitochondria by sending it pieces of DNA to help it survive without oxygen. These pieces of DNA activate some cell functions like high-growth and deactivate other functions like DNA repair which can cause cancer cells to replicate. Ironically, these changes can also damage the DNA of the cell nucleus because it is no longer being repaired. Cancer researchers who thought that DNA damage was the cause of cancer didn’t realize it was just a side effect of mitochondria damage.

One disturbing fact is that despite the number of smokers being cut by 50% in the last 40 years, cancer incidence is going up as is cancer mortality. In fact, the mortality rates are increasing so fast that the author predicts cancer will soon over take heart disease as the number one cause of death. This contradicts what I had been hearing from the media, about most cancers having effective cures and that a cure to all cancers was very close.

Despite the bad news, the author has a positive view of future cancer treatment because of an experimental diet that promotes low blood sugar. The diet basically consists of no sugar, very low carbohydrates, limited protein, and huge amounts of saturated fat.  This diet is known as the ketogenic diet. There are several trials going on around the world and there have been some extraordinary results with many people surviving previously incurable forms of cancer.  

I find it exciting to think that a diet could be the cure to cancer. Imagine getting diagnosed with cancer and instead of surgery, radiation treatment, and chemo therapy, the doctor just makes you an appointment with a dietitian. I highly recommend this book, five stars.

2017 Year of the Fire Rooster

It is time for our annual predictions based on the Chinese lunar calendar for 2017 Year of the Fire Rooster.  As we predicted, the current 2016 Fire Monkey year has been crazy and disorderly. The Monkey Year has seen lawlessness, extreme attitudes and deception. Unfortunately, the 2016's Star of Illness of the Flying Star Feng Shui chart brought us Zika, Hep A and other diseases spreading the globe. In contrast, the 2017 Rooster Year will be a time of rebirth, transformation, and growth.

The Rooster New Year starts January 28, 2017. It will focus on justice and efficiency and bring harmony, less violence, and more resources for growth.  Organizations like the police and military will regain favor. Loyalty, commitment, punctuality, hard work, patience, practicality, family values, and good physical appearances will be rewarded this year.

Replacing the Star of Illness at the center of the Flying Star Feng Shui chart will be the Victory Star which will make 2017 a great year for change and positive results.

During the last Fire Rooster Year, 60 years ago (1957) the Frisbee and portable typewriter were introduced, B52 airplanes flew the 1^st non-stop flight around the world and set a record at 45 hours and 19 minutes, US Congress accepted the Eisenhower doctrine (which allowed a country to request American economic assistance and/or aid from U.S. military forces if it was threatened by armed aggression from another state), Mao expounded his ideals in his speech “on correct handling of contradictions among people”, Great Britain became the 3^rd nation (after the US and USSR) to test nuclear bombs, the US army sold off their last homing pigeons, NYC and other cities ended their trolley service, the US Supreme Courts ruled that obscenity was not protected by the First Amendment, the link between smoking and lung cancer was published, the 1^st submarine designed to fire guided missiles was launched, the element 102 (Nobelium) was discovered, the 1^st rocket with a nuclear warhead was fired in Arizona, the 1^st American ran the mile in less than 4 minutes, the 1^st commercial building was heated by the sun in Albuquerque, the US Congress passed the Civil Rights Act of 1957, Ford introduced the Edsel, B52 bombers started flying full time in preparation for a USSR attack, “In God We Trust” 1^st appeared on US paper currency, the USSR launched Sputnik with Laika the dog on board, the1^st US large scale nuclear power plant started generating electricity in Pennsylvania, the 1^st Fair Housing Practices Law was passed in NYC, the 1^st pneumatic pump operation on a dog proved an artificial heart was possible, an Atlas intercontinental ballistic missile test was successful, and Elvis Presley was drafted into the US Army,

The 2017 Rooster Year will be a substantial change of pace from the crazy Monkey year with sanity and order restored in the world. Even better, the year will be dominated by the Victory Star, so you can expect success in competition, business, and your career  This is the year to work hard, keep your nose to the grindstone, and achieve your goals.

Ego is the Enemy

The book “Ego is the Enemy”, by Ryan Holiday, was motivated by the author’s personal experiences of fantastic wealth at an early age and subsequent loss of his wealth and marriage which he blamed on his big ego.

The content of the book is inspiring with lots of stories of how big egos have caused people great pain and their downfall. Many of the stories I had never heard before, for instance after being president of the U.S., General Grant sunk all his money in a Ponzi scheme and ended up poverty stricken in his retirement.  The book also has stories of humble people who have greatly improved the world and had happy lives by not letting their ego lead them to poor choices in their lives.

One of my disappointments with the  book was that the author didn’t reveal much about his personal experiences of having a big ego, how it felt for him, or what he learned. Many of the stories seem like they are what the author tells himself repeatedly to keep his own ego from getting out of control. The stories are told in a detached way and are mostly about  public figures rather than individuals he knew.  So there is nothing about what was going on in their minds or a close personal view. Interestingly, most of the stories in the book are about men.

In spite of these issues, I still found the book enjoyable to read and it helped me to recognize my ego better and be aware of the risks of letting my ego get out of control. It actually helped me be less stressed when my plans do not work out. I recommend it, especially for guys.

Could it Be B12; An Epidemic of Misdiagnoses

“Could it Be B12?; An Epidemic of Misdiagnoses”, by Sally M. Pacholok, R.N., B.S.N. and Jeffery J. Stuart, D.O., appears to be written by people who work in a clinical setting where they routinely see people misdiagnosed with fatal conditions when all they have is a severe vitamin B12 shortage. The book is primarily a compilation of misdiagnoses cases and the patients’ amazing recoveries, often within hours of receiving a B12 shot. The stories raise troubling questions about how the current medical establishment has a tendency to diagnose older Americans with untreatable chronic conditions without further investigation, even something as simple as an inexpensive B12 blood test.

Initially I was unhappy that the book did not provide an explanation about why B12 is so important for your health.  So I started to research what B12 does in the body and I learned that it does so many critical functions that it would require another book to explain them all. Having investigated  B12 made reading the book more enjoyable for me as I could see how a lack of B12 could lead to all the misdiagnosed conditions mentioned. Below is list of some of the things B12 does for our bodies:

·       B12 is required for the formation of red blood cells. Red blood cells (the hemoglobin inside red blood cells) carry oxygen to the body from the lungs and carbon dioxide to the lungs to be expelled.

·       B12 is needed to convert heart and vessel damaging homocysteine to healthy methionine. Methionine is needed to make S-adenosylmethione, which is needed to make DNA for cell replication and to make RNA.

·       B12 is needed for the metabolism of every cell in our body.

Every cell in the body needs B12 to function properly which explains why a shortage of it can cause symptoms similar to multiple sclerosis (MS). A shortage can also cause mental illness, heart disease, an impaired immunity system, auto immune diseases, cancer, infertility, autism, and brain damage in children.  

As I read through the stories and symptoms of acute B12 shortage I started wondering if I might have a B12 shortage. The authors implore readers to get a B12 blood test before taking B12 supplements to see if you actually have a B12 shortage.  According to them, the minimum level is 450pg/ml, which is 80% percent above the current recommended 250pg/ml. Of course I totally ignored their advice to get a blood test and began taking B12 supplements. I took the type they recommended, methyl cobalamin, 2 mg or 2000mcg, in a sub lingual pill.

The book does an excellent job of explaining the reasons why older people tend to be short of B12. Many medications keep B12 from being absorbed in the intestines and to get B12 from food requires the right stomach acid strength and a critical enzyme.  If these are missing, it is easy to get short of B12. The authors recommend taking B12 as a shot or as a sub lingual pill that you dissolve under your tongue to help bypass stomach acid and enzyme problems.

The book gives great advice about B12’s interactions with other drugs. Folic acid, for example, which is taken as a supplement by some people, masks a B12 shortage.  I was surprised that the authors didn’t make a distinction between the natural version of folate and synthetic made folic acid; my research about folic acid indicates it has lots of negative side effects that natural folate (which is in fresh lettuce and greens) does not. I take folate supplements with my B12.

The book was a great read that inspired me to start taking B12 supplements with my folate and B6 supplements. So far the result have been very positive; I feel like I have more energy and my memory is improving.  I recommend reading it, especially if you are over 50. Five Stars.